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Gold: the end of a trend or buying opportunity?

seekingalpha In my article I discussed the prospects of gold. This is the link to the article . To receive the article in Italian write an email to matteo.radaelli @ matrada.it

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Next week: in Euro area industrial production

My last article on seekingalpha: Eurozone: Next Week's Focus on Industrial Production Date

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focus on the ECB: Trichet dampens the tone on inflation and drive down the Euro

last press conference, ECB President Trichet has seemed less concerned about inflation risks than in January, despite the jump in CPI by 2.2% al 2.4%. Ecco il mio articolo su seekingalpha.

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USA: The credit market indicates positive prospects for the coming months

Il mio ultimo articolo su seekingalpha : i responsabili delle politiche creditizie delle principali banche commerciali in USA evidenziano un miglioramento del mercato del credito: una positiva indicazione per la crescita economica nei prossimi trimestri.

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Why the ECB will raise rates in the near future.

Gli investitori hanno interpretato le parole di Trichet nel corso della conferenza stampa del 13 gennaio come il segnale di un possibile rialzo dei tassi nel breve. Questa ipotesi ci sembra alquanto improbabile. Here is the link to our article on seekingalpha we review the scenario of the ECB's monetary policy. To receive the article in Italian describes matteo.radaelli @ matrada.it

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IFO index and yields on German government

Here is the link to my last article on seekingalpha on the relation between ' trend of the German IFO business confidence and performance of governments in 10 years

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Article Seekingalpha

Link to my last article on the site in seekingalpha which analyzes the major economic events of next week in USA. In particular there is a comment on the next meeting of the Fed and GDP data are scheduled next Friday.

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Indices German IFO business confidence at record high

The index of the German IFO business confidence rose in January to high of 110.3 compared to 109.9 in December. Consensus expectations were for a given change. The voice on the current situation fell from 112.9 to 112.8, compared to consensus expectations for a rise to 113.2, while the voice on the future expectations inaspettatamante has increased from 106.9 to 107.8 (106.5 to consensus). The new rise of the index of business confidence confirmed as the industry could continue to grow at a rapid pace over the coming months, despite the recent strength of the euro, particularly against the dollar, and the debt crisis in the peripheral countries.

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economic data on Thursday 20: Leading indicators, Philadelphia Fed and sales of existing homes in U.S.

Philadelphia Fed - In December, the Philadelphia Fed has remained at a level consistent with a continuation of the upward trend of manufacturing output in the short term, but down slightly from 22.5 to 20.8 . In January we expect chel'indice can remain essentially unchanged, confirming that the short-term prospects remain positive for the industrial sector through the international economic recovery and improvement domestic demand. Our expectations are for a drop to 20.

Sales of existing homes - after having fluctuated around 4.5 million in the last three months, we expect that sales of existing homes show a strong improvement in the short term: our estimate is that the data can be corrected by 4.68ma 4.5m in December. In line with other data in the real estate market, sales of existing homes are expected to improve further in coming months, while remaining at historically low levels.

Leading indicator - The leading indicator rose 1, 1% m / m in November, indicating that economic activity in the United States could be strengthened in the coming months. The December figure should give a more reassuring message on the outlook for the U.S. economy, rising 0.8% m / m. The largest positive contribution should come from the spread in interest rates, with requests for unemployment and the stock market, while the largest negative contribution should come from the vendor performance.

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United Kingdom: The jump in inflation makes life difficult for the Bank of England Government Debt

that the scenario of inflation in the UK was not positive was common knowledge for some time, but the jump in consumer prices in December took the most part of market participants by surprise. In the last month, in fact, the CPI showed an increase of 1% m / m, the largest monthly rise in the last twenty years, exceeding consensus expectations of +0.7% m / m. Compared to the same period last year the rise in inflation is 3.7% y / y from 3.3% y / y in November and against 3.4% y / y consensus expectations. Inflation is thus remained above the threshold of 3% for the tenth consecutive month. The main reason behind the jump in consumer prices was, as widely expected, the trend in energy prices: the transport component alone accounted for 0.25% to the monthly change. A role major leap in inflation was also played by increases in the utility sector, with the prices of gas and electricity, rose in line with the announcements of major companies in the sector during the previous weeks, and food prices, the which annual growth reached 6.1%.

However it was not just food and energy prices to be higher than expected. The core CPI, in fact, has risen from 2.7% y / y to 2.9% y / y pointing out that the underlying inflationary pressures may be greater than had the same central bank. The prices of services, for example, showed an increase of 3.9% y / y despite the weakness in demand that would limit the increases.

medium-term scenario for prices seems to be even worse. Beginning with the January data, in fact, not only will feel the effects of the new jump in energy prices, with oil that has been reported in permanent above the threshold of 90 dollars per barrel in the first weeks of 2011, but also the rise in VAT from 17.5% to 20% entered into force Jan. 4. It is not, in fact, said that the VAT impact on inflation will be zero as was the case last January, when it was reported by 15% to 17.5%.

The jump in inflation makes the decisions of the Bank of England over the next few months very difficult. If, in fact, the monetary authorities of the United Kingdom had always provided a leap in inflation over the coming months, with a peak just above 4% y / y expected in the spring, recent developments could be worse than from their own estimate. The jump in inflation in recent months is, in fact, beginning to be felt in consumers 'expectations: a survey of the Bank of England last December, for example, showed that consumers' expectations for inflation have been taken to Most recent two years. It would, therefore, the risk that the expected price inflation 2% by the end of the forecast period of two years the central bank could not be reached.

The market pressures on the Bank of England to raise rates by a record low of 0.5% over the coming months could get higher and higher, if only to get a confirmation that the central bank has not abdicated its goal to maintain inflation at a target of 2% over the medium term. Most of the economists of the major investment bank now expects the first rate hike may happen in the first half of this year and no more in the third quarter as expected before the publication of inflation figures for December. For example, George Buckley of Deutsche Bank estimated that the first rise can be decided at the meeting in May on the occasion of the publication of the second inflation report of 2011 (the first will be released in mid-February), when you have more information on the economic environment. Data released in recent weeks, in fact, showed a slower rate of economic growth, which led to the federation of British industry to estimate growth in the first two quarters of 2011 no more than 0.2%. In the view of industrial policy recently adopted restrictive fiscal Cameron government to bring the deficit under control in the coming years (from 10.1% this year, the deficit is expected to fall 2.1% in fiscal year 2014/2015) will have a negative impact on economic growth in the first part of next year. A restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of England is likely, therefore, confronted with the need to support economic growth. Precisely for this reason Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics suggest to the monetary authorities to keep their nerve and continue to provide support to economic growth. The setting of the monetary policy of the Bank of England is therefore very uncertain monetary policy is wait and the most likely scenario in the first quarter and the next steps should depend predominantly on the data that will be published in the next months. However, despite the jump in inflation, the beginning of a highly restrictive monetary policy does not appear imminent.

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always on top

will be once again the prospects for sovereign debt of the peripheral countries the focus of central bankers in the Euro 13 when they meet Thursday in Frankfurt. Shall not, however, expectations of interest rate decisions, which should remain stationary at 1% for the twentieth consecutive month. In particular, the situation will be in Portugal to be examined with greater care in the light of the tensions that have surrounded the Lusitanian debt securities during the first sessions of the year. During recent weeks, in fact, the Portuguese government to ten years have approached in a decisive manner, surpassing it in many occasions, the critical threshold of 7%, which marked the deterioration of the situation in Greece and Ireland, both countries were forced to require the coordinated action of European Union and the International Monetary Fund once their long-term yields had risen above 7%, making debt financing too expensive. The same Texeira Portuguese Finance Minister has repeatedly stressed that yields above 7% would be hardly bearable by his country. Hardly auctions of securities at 3 and 9 years on the calendar today should be able to bring about the peaceful markets, especially in light of the limited amount of equivalent value: between 750 million and 1.25 billion from 20 billion market that analysts estimate will be collected in 2011.

The debate within the ECB should be primarily focused on the continuation of the purchase of government bonds over the next month after market intervention by monetary authorities in Frankfurt have intensified in recent weeks: the value of the securities purchased is, in fact, rose to EUR74 billion from EUR63.5 billion in mid-November in the wake of the tensions that have covered the debt securities of all the peripheral countries. The decrease in securities purchased for EUR113 million in the week up to January 10 from EUR164 million the previous year and from EUR1121 million during the last week of 2010 may, however, be regarded as a sign of the unwillingness of the ECB to give more purchases under the program. That some members of the Board of Directors, among which the president of the Bundesbank Axel Weber, have always been skeptical of the purchase of government bonds is not, moreover never been a mystery. Significant new developments on this program, however, should not emerge, as well as with reference to the extraordinary refinancing that had been confirmed through the first quarter of this year last December.

At a press conference following the meeting the ECB President Trichet should remind governments decision to implement those measures necessary to bring the public finances in order and avoid a worsening of the situation on the markets, in line with the harsh tone used in the Last Friday, the Congress of the German CSU. This call should come as a warning to politicians that support the countries of the ECB and the banks in difficulties may soon fall.

Over the coming months, in fact, the ECB might have to return to deal with higher inflation, which we have already had the first signs during the month of December: according to Eurostat's flash estimate, in fact, consumer prices showed an increase of 2.2% y / y in the last months of 2010, the highest since January 2009. As the price increase should be mainly due to the leap in commodity prices, it is difficult to imagine that the ECB may decide to further increase market liquidity, in light of the signals coming from movements in the money supply M3. The growth rate of M3 money supply has in fact accelerated to 1 .9% y / y in November, as well as credits to the private sector. Only an increase in core inflation, 1 .1% y / y in November, but may alarm the ECB.

In short, investors expect the ECB to support new market could soon be very disappointed.

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DECAY "HOUSE OF THE TOWN '" DEDICATED TO "TOWN HALL IV - CEMENT TO ADVANCE" OF 24 NOVEMBER 2010: PART 1 - THE WORST TALENT Corviale

Transmission of "Little House on the city's" People's Radio, in collaboration with the Roman system of mutual aid, of 24 November 2010, dedicated to "Town Hall IV : The concrete advances "- part 1: Talents Corviale worse.

After the heartfelt appeal against the overbuilding Hall IV launched by the President of the IV Municipio Cristiano Bonelli at the direct-TGR Lazio square Minucciano of November 2, 2010, the program "The House of the city" of Radiopopolare of 24 November 2010 and explores the delicate issue of concern of overbuilding City Hall IV, in particular the district and the areas along the Via Talents Bufalotta, that is causing so much alarm among the citizens of the district and the entire Talent City Hall.

participate in the transmission study, two Meritorious neighborhood committees and Save Serpentara Talents, which are struggling to defend the town hall, in addition to the coordinator of the Roman Mutual Aid Marcello Paolozzi. Spoke over the phone the president of the IV Municipio Bonelli and the President of the Planning Commission of the City of Rome, Marco Di Cosimo.

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What did I give and bequeath' AL PD Veltroni of Rome? UNFORTUNATELY the infamous policy of "BUT" IN THE MUNICIPALITY IN THE EXAMPLES WE HAVE FRESH IV, with the story of MINUCCIANO SQUARE, AND THE EURO, THE AFFAIR OF THE REFERENDUM ON THE GRAND PRIX FORMULA 1

PRU ART CASE 11 FIDENE-VAL Melaine

Thursday, December 17 PD Hall IV in Rome organized the Via della Domus urbis Bufalotta, for relaunch of the Municipality of PD IV, a meeting with the citizens, who have been called "famous" characters, local, provincial and national party, with Enrico Gasparri throwing slogans "Alemanno inappropriate, we choose il nostro sindaco ”,  e “ torniamo ad ascoltare i bisogni della gente, prestando attenzione ai cittadini e rispondendo alle necessità del territorio ”, come illustra un un articolo sul Corriere della Sera-edizione Roma di venerdi 17 dicembre 2010, qui a destra riprodotto.

Peccato tuttavia che dopo tutte queste belle parole a chi ha deciso di affidare un intervento introduttivo il PD ? Mirko Coratti….., si proprio quel Mirko Coratti che proprio di recente nella vicenda del tentativo di cementificazione residenziale dell’area verde di piazza Minacciano, quella parte del Parco della Torricella che la mozione del Consiglio Comunale di Roma n. 173/2006 aveva dichiarato doversi difendere in full, submitted on June 9, 2010 the City Council of Rome's infamous motion which gave the mandate to authorize the amendment to the offices of 55,000 cubic meters of housing subsidies to the manufacturer by trade (OTC) to residential! It

to him! But what do those parts of PD, the people of the City Hall IV has a short memory? Who can forget such a thing?

also because the story is not ended and the PD is making sure there a good impression, because PD is the same as he did approve in early 2008 that notorious "Recovery Program Urban Art. 11 Law 493/1993 Fidene Melaina-Val, which is cemented the last areas still free from parts of Bufalotta!

Of all this we did not find any trace of this in speeches to the conference Domus Urbis, or in various interviews with the TGR-Sydney by a leading representative of the PD-Municipio IV, Richard anger, which in we would have expected words of reflection and self-criticism, if not apologetic towards citizenship, the committees and associoni literally taken for a ride in mobilizing the comparison PRU Fidene-Val Melaina between 2004 and 2007, one of the most blatant violations of avoidance rather participation rights of the people so far have occurred in the municipality of Rome!

And so dear friends of the Democratic Party, come and meet the people via their Bufalotta, and all this even a word? Launched the slogan " back to listen to people's needs, taking care to citizens and responding to the needs of the area ", and then continue instead to "pay attention to the needs of yet another manufacturer, this time Money?

COSI 'YOU ARE NOT CREDIBLE, IT IS ONCE AGAIN VELTRONI AN APPLICATION OF THE PRINCIPLE of the infamous " BUT ALSO, WITH THE PEOPLE AND THE MUNICIPALITY OF ROME IV E' GIA 'WAS MORE' FRIGATE IN TIMES PAST !

THEREFORE THE PEOPLE DO NOT FORGET!

So much so that the monthly "The Fourth", one of the cornerstones of free information in the IV Municipio, has decided to give just Mirko Coratti, for his role (in favor of the usual building speculators who Stano devastated our town hall!) threaten the shameful story of the square, the Prize "The Polecat gold 2010.

BUT NOT 'OVER HERE? SEE ALSO THE CASE OF ORGANIZED BY PD REFERENDUM ON THE EURO GRAND PRIX FORMULA 1

precisely the same hour another emblematic episode of the well known "maanchismo veltroniana of memory is happening to the euro in the referendum that just the PD wanted to organize the Grand Prix Formula 1, shown by an article in the Corriere della Sera, Rome edition of Saturday, December 18, 2010 which are reproduced here.

face of the declarations of the newly elected town clerk of PD Marco Miccoli: " we are not prejudiced against the GP, but we want to understand why he was not yet presented the draft ", comes a frank and decisive attack of Senator Lucio D'Ubaldo, a member of the national leadership of the PD firing:

"Miccoli welcomes the funding of PD dinner the F1 Maurizio Flammini, at the same time launching the mobilization against the GP, in disregard of the concerns of the Working PD euro and the Torrino that you do not respect the autonomy

CI LIGHTING STRIKES, WE UNDERSTAND WHAT IS THE SCHOOL OF POLITICS JUST ANNOUNCED by Walter Veltroni, FOUNDER OF NEW CURRENT DEFINITISAI Nuna, "MODEM", BEAUTIFUL WORDS BUT STRICTLY AIR FRIED!

also to teach young people the infamous policy of "But" ... ... ... ..

other hand, there ARE MANY heirs in those notorious PD "MAANCHISMO" Veltroni .....

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Christmas greetings

THE ORGANIZING COMMITTEE FOR WEDNESDAY, Dec. 22 AT 18 AT THE HALL OF Gáspár Pacchiarotta a reception to exchange greetings OF CHRISTMAS AND TO THE POINT OF THE SITUATION AND TO DISCUSS THE NEXT STEPS ARE INVITED ALL MEMBERS, supporters and friends for a moment of serenity A FUN COME.

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Difficult choices to European central banks

In Europe, the ECB is not only to see their choices of monetary policy over the coming months, complicated by the crisis of the peripheral countries, which could jeopardize the economic growth in the Euro during the coming months. Even the central banks of Sweden, Norway and Switzerland, which will meet during the week (the first two today as the Swiss Central Bank will meet Thursday) will now face a complicated situation. While, in fact, le loro economie stanno vivendo un momento positivo che richiederebbe un’ulteriore rimozione dello stimolo fiscale che era stato deciso nel corso dei momenti peggiori della crisi del 2008/2009, dall’altra le incertezze che riguardano lo scenario economico internazionale, ed in particolare quello dell’area Euro, rendono difficile prendere una decisione in tal senso. Le economie di questi paesi, infatti, sono molto orientate verso le esportazioni, che rappresentato più del 40% del Pil nel caso della Norvegia e più del 50% per Svezia e Svizzera. Inoltre, con Fed, BCE e Bank of England che non dovrebbero alzare i tassi ancora per diversi mesi, un rialzo dei tassi potrebbe avere l’effetto di rafforzare ulteriormente le valute di questi paesi, che si sono già notevolmente apprezzate nel corso del 2010.

Nonostante tutte le incertezze, un ulteriore rialzo dei tassi sembra essere molto probabile in Svezia già da oggi, mentre in Norvegia e Svizzera, dove i tassi sono ampiamente attesi restare invariati, saranno soprattutto le dichiarazioni rilasciate al termine delle riunioni da analizzare con attenzione.

La Banca Centrale Svedese (Riksbank) al termine della riunione di politica monetaria di ottobre ha aumentato i tassi di 25bp per la terza volta dallo scorso mese di luglio portandoli all’1%. Nel corso delle ultime settimane i dati economici pubblicati in Svezia sono stati generalmente very strong, with GDP growing by 2.1% q / q in Q3 '10, despite some signs warning it carries out its joint indices of business and consumer confidence, increasing the chances that the Riksbank will raise rates further 25bp at the end of the monetary policy meeting today. No coincidence that as many as 17 of the 22 consensus of economists gathered in Bloomberg expected a rise of 25bp today despite inflation is below the target of 2% and two executive board members have also voted against the increase in October. To push the central bank to raise rates should be especially dynamic real estate market, with house prices rose in the last 18 months, reaching an annualized change 5% in the three months up to October.

will also be assessing the Riksbank's forecasts on the trend of rates over the next few quarters. In October, the Central Bank had estimated that rates could go up to 2% by the end of 2011: a modification of this provision may be more significant for investors of the decision on the trend of interest rates.

Despite the housing market is a source of concern for the Norwegian Central Bank (Norges Bank), with house prices rose by 6.2% y / y in October, a rise in interest rates is not expected until at least the end the first quarter of next year, in line with detto dalla Banca lo scorso mese di ottobre. I dati economici pubblicati nelle ultime settimane non dovrebbero avere cambiato la visione della Norges Bank sulle prospettive economiche. Tuttavia la necessità di rallentare la crescita del mercato immobiliare, dei crediti al settore privato e dei consumi privati potrebbero spingere la Norges bank, secondo Frank Jullum di Fokus Bank, ad alzare i tassi nel 2011 nel più di quanto previsto dalla stessa banca centrale (tassi al 2.5% a dicembre 2011).

Non è, invece, imminente una rimozione della politica monetaria espansiva da parte della Banca centrale Svizzera. La Banca, infatti, al termine della riunione di politica monetaria di giovedì dovrebbe lasciare la fascia obiettivo for the 3-month Libor unchanged at 0.0 to 0.75% with the intention to keep the Libor rate around 0.25%. A worry about the SNB should be both economic prospects and the evolution of consumer prices, perilously close to 0%, because of the rise of the Swiss Franc. With the currency almost unchanged against the euro since September, the SNB is expected to confirm his concerns indicating that "take the necessary measures to ensure price stability" in the case of "a new threat of deflation," raising the possibility of action on foreign exchange market in the coming months.

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RECRUITMENT TO SCANDAL 'ATAC: FRIENDS OF RELATIVES EMPLOYED usual suspects ...

breaks out in Rome on the case of 854 ATAC assumptions made under the management of the newly resigned managing director Lamberto Bertucci, without selection or transparent competitions of any kind, a real insult consentitecelo-for-all families with young unemployed, who would gladly He takes part in an open and transparent selection if this were allowed.

Unfortunately places-apparently-they went to relatives, friends and acquaintances of the usual suspects ....

Mayor Gianni Alemanno, promised: "I want to see clearly, there will be no discounts, we hope ....

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METRO EXTENSION TO B1 Ionic Bufalotta: INTERVIEW WITH A TALENT TG-ROMA HALL IV PRESIDENT AND COUNCILLOR CHRISTIAN BONELLI Public Works TOWN OF ROME FABRIZIO GHERA

In the face of news that are spreading on the implementation of the final section of square meters of B1 Ionic Bufalotta financed with project financing with additional measures of "real estate development, spreading alarm in the City Hall IV, which has already said in 2007 a strong NO to the City Council and people in the infamous Resolution of the City Council n.218/2007, Bufalotta that resolution, and afraid of dishing vedersene once again today the contents, with a further devastating an area of \u200b\u200bcement already collapsed, to achieve an extension of a meter that could instead be built as light rail at much lower cost.

After his appeal against the hard cement factory in Hall IV, at the direct-TGR Lazio square Minucciano of November 2, 2010, the President of the Municipality reaffirms its conviction Cristiano Bonelli NO to these real estate valuations, both in the conclusion program "The House of the City" Radio Popolare di Monday, November 22, 2010, dedicated to the overbuilding of the Town Hall IV, which recently in an exclusive interview with this blog TG-Talenti Rome, just issued on sites B1 Metro Karpathos Street Saturday, November 28, we present in this video.

And 'is significant to note that these recent actions confirm the answer to his own time by Bonelli-rilascataci to our specific question-in an old interview of March 9, 2008, in part also re-proposed here.

The problem of overbuilding, the more "real estate valuations, but compatible and necessary public works, is now finally proposed, during a second interview soon followed, also alderman of Public Works Fabrizio Gera, while not competent on the subway followed by my colleague Sergio Marchi Councillor for Mobility and pointed out that on this sensitive issue is likely to come Alemanno lot in terms of consensus in City Hall IV, one of the three municipalities literally devastated by the lava of cement allowed by the junta Veltroni.

last piece of advice to the mayor Alemanno side the interest of citizenship and not that of big business, and forget those who have advised each other in the Metro extension to B1 Bufalotta, and it is encouraging for the industry metros, including the Metro C, these same advisors Veltroni who-judging by the results achieved-have led most of the former mayor to harsh defeat in April 2008!

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DAL CONVEGNO DEL 13 NOVEMBRE "UN'ALTRA METRO C E' ANCORA POSSIBILE", FINALMENTE LA VERITA' SULLA CONTROVERSA OPERA PUBBLICA

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PROLUNGAMENTO METRO B1......PER LIGRESTI

Il sistema del project financing spalleggiata da pinoccio Alemannoadesso e da Morassut nella vecchia maggioranza porterà con la scusadella valorozzazione immobiliare cioe un scambio finanziamenti privatiin cambio di cubature residenziali almeno altri 2 milioni di mc dicemento nel nostro municipio.
Il vecchio tracciato del prolungamento prevedeva due fermate MonteCervialto e Serpentara ad alta densità abitativa per snellire ilcongestionamento, ragionamento da citta europea, invece il nuvotracciato per un costo stimatio di 600 milioni di euro per trefermate, arrivera a Bufalotta con la fermata / capolinea Mosca guardacaso a ridosso dei terreni di LIGRESTI allora sorge una domanda maquesta metro e chi serve ai cittadini o a Ligresti?