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HERE AFTER A WEEK HOW HAVE REDUCED THE HYPOGEUM Toricelli

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Consumer confidence in U.S.: signs of a moderate consumption growth in the coming months

The index of the Conference Board consumer confidence rebounded in August from 50.4 to 53.5, ma è rimasto ben al di sotto sia della media a lungo termine (96) sia della media del periodo aprile-giugno (58,03). Nonostante le indicazioni negative arrivate dalla lettura preliminare dell’indice di fiducia dei consumatori dell'Università del Michigan a settembre (l'indice è sceso inaspettatamente da 68,9 a 66,6), ci aspettiamo che il leggero miglioramento del mercato del lavoro nel corso delle ultime settimane, come indicato dalla diminuzione delle richieste settimanali di sussidi di disoccupazione, possano spingere verso l'alto la fiducia dei consumatori nella lettura del Conference Board: la nostra stima è che l'indice salga a 54. Tuttavia, l'indice rimarrebbe su livelli storicamente bassi, indicando un tasso di crescita to moderate consumer spending in coming months.

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Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting today

The FOMC is widely expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0/0.25% at the end of the monetary policy meeting next week. After the decision in August to reinvest the proceeds from the securities agency mortgage-backed debt in the long-term Treasury securities and Treasury securities to reinvest their maturity always in Treasury securities, the Fed is widely expected to implement a further process of quantitative easing in the coming months. However, we do not expect the Fed to implement that in the course of monetary policy meeting today. More information on the outlook for monetary policy of the Fed are in the weekly Global strategy this week.

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Ideas for the week: FOMC, the U.S. real estate market, the German IFO and minute the BoE

• U.S. economic data released last week (ie retail sales and industrial production) have confirmed that the most likely scenario for the U.S. economy in the coming months is a growth rate moderate. During the next week the focus will be on the FOMC monetary policy meeting. The beginning of a new round of quantitative easing is not expected at the next meeting, but every indication it will be closely monitored. Data on real estate market should confirm that a breakthrough is not imminent;

• Euro Area: The Zew economic sentiment index fell in September, indicating a weakening of economic growth over the next months. The IFO index of business confidence which will be released Friday should conferemare that the growth of industry in the coming months will be weaker;

• UK: The minutes of policy meeting monetary 09/09 should confirm the BoE has seen arguments both in favor of a rate increase is a further easing of monetary dipolitica orientation. Despite the higher than expected inflationary pressures we expect the Bank of England maintains a wait in the coming months;

• Switzerland: Swiss National Bank left the target for the 3-month Libor unchanged at 0.0 to 0.75% and confirmed its willingness to keep the Libor rate at the bottom of this range, around 0.25%. The SNB has seemed concerned regarding prospects economic and inflation, increasing the possibility of an intervention on the currency market in the coming months.

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Japan intervenes in the foreign exchange market to depreciate the yen

During the night, Japan has intervened in the market unilaterally to weaken the yen against major international currencies, particularly delo U.S. dollar, against which was recently increased to a maximum of the last 15. The Yen is currently losing more than 2% against all major currencies and the Nikkei closed up by more than 2%. To be evaluated now is whether these actions will have a lasting effect on the foreign exchange market or only temporary. The academic literature has reached mixed results sui risultati degli interventi delle banche centrali sul mercato dei cambi ed il recente fallimento della Banca Nazionale Svizzera nel fermare l'apprezzamento del Franco Svizzero è un esempio negativo in tal senso. Ad ogni modo, considerando tutti i problemi dell'economia giapponese che abbiamo sottolineato in un nostro articolo dello scorso mese di maggio, non investiremmo nella valuta giapponese in questo momento.

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Chinese economy: growth engine or brake for the global economy?

Dopo essersi concentrata sulle prospettive economiche di Stati Uniti ed Area Euro, alla luce dei segnali di rallentamento che sono emersi nel corso delle ultime settimane, l’attenzione di investitori and economists has been focused in recent days the Chinese economy. Friday and Saturday, in fact, were released a series of important economic data relating to the Second World Economy, which reinforced the belief that the fate of global economic growth will depend more and more over the next few years the trend of the Chinese . Especially if you were to make an estimate of the former chief economist of Goldman Sachs for a doubling of China's GDP within a decade.

In this sense, positive signals have come on the performance of industrial production and retail sales during the month August. Industrial production, in fact, grew by 13.9% y / y, exceeding consensus expectations for an increase of 13%% y / y and accelerated in comparison to 13.4% y / y in July. Even stronger was the growth of retail sales: +18.4% y / y versus market expectations of 18% y / y in July, a previous 17.9% y / y. The strongest growth in retail sales relative to production was also interpreted as a sign that China's economy is slowly rebalancing growth towards greater domestic demand, an element considered essential by many experts to see a more balanced growth in the years to come. The decrease in surplus balance from USD28.73bn to USD20.3bn in August, thanks to the leap of 35.2% y / y in imports, was another important indication of the growing domestic demand. The sharp jump in imports of raw materials, also shows that concerns about a slowing Chinese economy after a few uncertain data have emerged in recent weeks, particularly the decline in the manufacturing PMI close to 50 (51.2 in July, followed by a rising to 51.7 in August), could be exaggerated. As a slower rate of growth of GDP over the first two quarters (11.9% y / y 10.3% y / y respectively in the first and second quarter of the year) is very likely, This should be supported, for example Bank of America-Merrill Lynch estimates a growth of 9.4% y / y in Q3 '10 and 9% in Q4 '10.

The positive economic data published over the weekend could have the effect of reducing the fears of the political authorities to accelerate the appreciation of Chinese Yuan against the U.S. dollar. However, the rise of the Chinese currency continues to remain low since the Chinese Central Bank has eliminated last June 19 to anchor against the U.S. dollar (+1%), and in the Monday session was limited to 0.12% even if this led to the exchange rate U.S. dollar / yuan to a record low.

In the medium term, however, a continuation of the upward trend of the yuan against the U.S. dollar seems inevitable. For example, forward contracts on the yuan estimate an increase of 1 .7% over 12 months. A play in favor of an appreciation of the yuan is rising inflation in August rose 3.5% y / y: an increase in the Yuan, in fact, slow down the pressure inflazinistiche.

The jump in inflation is also a very disturbing sign for the Chinese economy, as it may aggravate the greatest source of danger for the Chinese economy at this moment: la forte crescita del mercato immobiliare.

Con l’inflazione al 3.5% y/y, infatti, e il tasso sui depositi al 2.25%, i tassi reali cinesi sono negativi per l’1.25%, situazione che spinge sempre di più i risparmiatori verso forme d’investimento alternative a quella dei depositi bancari, con il settore immobiliare in primo piano. Il rialzo del 9.3% y/y dei prezzi delle case in Agosto ne è una chiara conferma, così come il balzo del 15% del valore delle transazioni. Tali dati indicano chiaramente che i tentativi fatti dal Governo per raffreddare il mercato immobiliare, quali criteri di accesso al credito più stringenti per l’acquisto di seconde e terze case, non hanno per il momento avuto i risultati sperati.

La soluzione più facile per le autorità cinesi per placare un’inflazione in rialzo e un mercato immobiliare in forte crescita con il rischio di una bolla immobiliare sembrerebbe quella di alzare i tassi, come hanno del resto già fatto in Asia Sud Corea, Malesia e India.

Tuttavia, la situazione per le autorità cinesi è più complicata. Il boom del mercato immobiliare, infatti, è stato creato anche da una forte crescita dei crediti, che però potrebbe ben presto a finire. Dopo l’incremento di 545 miliardi di Yuan registrato in Agosto, il totale dei crediti concessi da inizio anno ha raggiunto quota 5694 miliardi, contro un obiettivo stabilito dalle autorità cinesi per l’intero anno di 7500 miliardi. Salvo il caso di una revisione di tale target, che ci sembra improbabile per l’enfasi posta sulla necessità di limitare l’espansione del credito negli scorsi mesi, il totale dei crediti concessi dovrebbe ampiamente diminuire nell’ultima parte del 2010, favorendo una moderazione della crescita dei prezzi. Fintanto che non sarà evidente l’effetto del rallentamento della crescita dei crediti sul mercato immobiliare, le autorità cinesi difficilmente prenderanno una decisione sui tassi di interesse per non correre il rischio di provocare una forte discesa dei prezzi delle case, salvo in caso di una forte accelerazione dei prezzi al consumo. Qualora il mercato real estate slow down in too strong, in fact, there would be serious risks for the Chinese financial system in light of the heavy exposure of the sector on the real estate market (about half of all new loans would be used for investment in real estate), as evidenced by the head of Banking Supervision Commission Liu Mingkang in a recent interview. The biggest challenge for the Chinese economy, then, is now to help avoid a slowdown in the housing market collapse that would endanger financial stability. From the success of this mission will depend not only the development of the Chinese economy but the global one.

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Ideas for next week: the confidence of businesses and consumers in the U.S., Germany Zew index, meetings of central banks in Switzerland and New Zealand

• U.S.: The Fed's Beige Book released last week confirmed that the U.S. economy is slowing and that a new round of quantitative easing by the Fed is a distinct possibility, although not in the short term . During next week's data on industrial production for August and indexes of the confidence of businesses and consumers should reduce concerns about a double dip of the U.S., confirming that the most likely scenario in the coming months is a growth rate moderate. Inflation is likely to continue to be moderate

• Euro Area: The index of confidence of analysts and institutional investors Zew to fall for the fifth consecutive month in August, anticipating a fall even IFO index of business confidence in the coming months. The CPI in the Euro-August should confirm that inflationary pressures are limited;

• United Kingdom : the Bank of England decided to keep the official discount rate at 0 , 5% and to maintain the stock of asset purchases to GBP200bn. During the next week, the ICC should go below the threshold of 3% for the first time dal gennaio scorso;

• Svizzera : Nel corso della riunione di politica monetaria della settimana prossima, la BNS è attesa lasciare la fascia obiettivo per il Libor a 3 mesi invariata a 0,0-0,75%. Il punto di maggiore interesse sarà la visione della BNS sull’andamento del Franco Svizzero;

• Canada : La Banca del Canada ha deciso di alzare i tassi dallo 0,75% al 1% al termine della riunione di politica monetaria della settimana scorsa;

• Nuova Zelanda : the RBNZ expected to raise 25bp to 3.25%.

For more in-depth test reports Top Down Outlook

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Norway's central bank buys bonds

The Norwegian pension fund - which manages the income derived from extraction of oil and gas and is the second largest in the world with USD450bn under management after the one in Abu Dhabi - today announced it has bought government bonds from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. In particular, it went against the current choice to buy securities Greeks. Considering the difficulties of the country (Eurostat said recently had not received important documents on the public debt) and the increased ability of the Norwegian fund compared to most retail investors to absorb losses, to follow the example of the fund seems particularly risky in spite of its very positive track record over the years .

The article by Bloomberg

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Greeks trapped Switzerland: Swiss Franc against the Euro at the highest

Maybe go back to that reference in the communiqué issued at the end of monetary policy last June 17 to the fact that the risks of deflation are gone thanks to the improved economic situation the Central Bank of Switzerland would not do it more. This, in fact, it was rightly interpreted by investors as a sign that the Swiss monetary authorities would no longer intervene to slow the appreciation of the Swiss Franc against the Euro. And the result was that the exchange rate of EUR / CHF has strengthened its downward trend, going to record over the last few sessions under his own record low 1.30, thanks to the fall in equity markets has encouraged the movement of fly to safety by investors. The appreciation of the Swiss Franc against the Euro on the day of the last meeting of the SNB is more than 5% while in 2010 the gain of the Swiss franc is over 12%.

The situation for the SNB to this point is very delicate: on the one hand, in the Swiss Central Bank has to deal with the sharp increase in foreign reserves in its budget surplus. These, in fact, increased from 2009 to the end of CHF94.680bn CHF226.657 the end of June and up more than 81% of the assets of the Bank. This is exposing the heavy losses to capital: the SNB has CHF14bn the estimated losses on exchange rates in H1'10.

Across the dangers of deflation seems to be all but disappeared, whereas inflation has fallen for three consecutive months and over the same period last year, the increase was a modest 0.4%. In this sense, an important event is the publication of inflation data Friday, September 3rd of August. Consensus expectations are unchanged for a given on a monthly basis with the change over the same period last year stable at 0.4%. Will be evaluated, however, especially the trend of core inflation, which in July had fallen to 0.1% y / y and could see a further decline in August.

The core price inflation may require additional action by the SNB expansive they seem, however, difficult to implement rates almost to 0 and foreign exchange interventions difficult to implement unless you want to further expand the share of foreign currency in the budget of the SNB (at that point would the entire budget in Euro). The Swiss central bank could then find a dead end with a few strings to its bow.

In this scenario only a strong recovery in equity markets, which would reduce the movement of flight to safety, signs of a slowdown in the Swiss economy, which would make investments in Switzerland unattractive, or a sharp rise in inflation globally, which push up the rates at the international level by strengthening other currencies, seem to be able to reverse in a supported the trend of strengthening of Franco. All of these scenarios, however, currently appear to be unlikely, particularly with regard to economic growth in Switzerland. The data on GDP for the second quarter to be published Thursday, September 2, in fact, should show an increase of 0.8% q / q and 2.6% y / y, noting that the Swiss economy as a major recipient of international economic recovery. Moreover, the main leading indicators of the Swiss economy (KOF index, the PMI manufacturing index on consumption prepared by UBS) continue to indicate a continuation of economic growth over the next few months.

The upward pressure on France seems thus to be intended to continue in the short term or at least until the SNB will not take a new position on exchange rate policies. The next event is the Central Bank on 16 September, but it is possible that, if France continues to strengthen with such speed, the SNB will take place at a future day.

After the recent increases in the Swiss Franc is much overvalued compared to the PPP calculated by the OECD: +57% vs. +64% against the U.S. Dollar and the Euro. This could have negative effects on economic growth in Switzerland, increasing the deflationary pressures, although for now it remains sustained. However, a slowdown of the Swiss economy from the coming months is a clear possibility.