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economic data on Thursday 20: Leading indicators, Philadelphia Fed and sales of existing homes in U.S.

Philadelphia Fed - In December, the Philadelphia Fed has remained at a level consistent with a continuation of the upward trend of manufacturing output in the short term, but down slightly from 22.5 to 20.8 . In January we expect chel'indice can remain essentially unchanged, confirming that the short-term prospects remain positive for the industrial sector through the international economic recovery and improvement domestic demand. Our expectations are for a drop to 20.

Sales of existing homes - after having fluctuated around 4.5 million in the last three months, we expect that sales of existing homes show a strong improvement in the short term: our estimate is that the data can be corrected by 4.68ma 4.5m in December. In line with other data in the real estate market, sales of existing homes are expected to improve further in coming months, while remaining at historically low levels.

Leading indicator - The leading indicator rose 1, 1% m / m in November, indicating that economic activity in the United States could be strengthened in the coming months. The December figure should give a more reassuring message on the outlook for the U.S. economy, rising 0.8% m / m. The largest positive contribution should come from the spread in interest rates, with requests for unemployment and the stock market, while the largest negative contribution should come from the vendor performance.

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United Kingdom: The jump in inflation makes life difficult for the Bank of England Government Debt

that the scenario of inflation in the UK was not positive was common knowledge for some time, but the jump in consumer prices in December took the most part of market participants by surprise. In the last month, in fact, the CPI showed an increase of 1% m / m, the largest monthly rise in the last twenty years, exceeding consensus expectations of +0.7% m / m. Compared to the same period last year the rise in inflation is 3.7% y / y from 3.3% y / y in November and against 3.4% y / y consensus expectations. Inflation is thus remained above the threshold of 3% for the tenth consecutive month. The main reason behind the jump in consumer prices was, as widely expected, the trend in energy prices: the transport component alone accounted for 0.25% to the monthly change. A role major leap in inflation was also played by increases in the utility sector, with the prices of gas and electricity, rose in line with the announcements of major companies in the sector during the previous weeks, and food prices, the which annual growth reached 6.1%.

However it was not just food and energy prices to be higher than expected. The core CPI, in fact, has risen from 2.7% y / y to 2.9% y / y pointing out that the underlying inflationary pressures may be greater than had the same central bank. The prices of services, for example, showed an increase of 3.9% y / y despite the weakness in demand that would limit the increases.

medium-term scenario for prices seems to be even worse. Beginning with the January data, in fact, not only will feel the effects of the new jump in energy prices, with oil that has been reported in permanent above the threshold of 90 dollars per barrel in the first weeks of 2011, but also the rise in VAT from 17.5% to 20% entered into force Jan. 4. It is not, in fact, said that the VAT impact on inflation will be zero as was the case last January, when it was reported by 15% to 17.5%.

The jump in inflation makes the decisions of the Bank of England over the next few months very difficult. If, in fact, the monetary authorities of the United Kingdom had always provided a leap in inflation over the coming months, with a peak just above 4% y / y expected in the spring, recent developments could be worse than from their own estimate. The jump in inflation in recent months is, in fact, beginning to be felt in consumers 'expectations: a survey of the Bank of England last December, for example, showed that consumers' expectations for inflation have been taken to Most recent two years. It would, therefore, the risk that the expected price inflation 2% by the end of the forecast period of two years the central bank could not be reached.

The market pressures on the Bank of England to raise rates by a record low of 0.5% over the coming months could get higher and higher, if only to get a confirmation that the central bank has not abdicated its goal to maintain inflation at a target of 2% over the medium term. Most of the economists of the major investment bank now expects the first rate hike may happen in the first half of this year and no more in the third quarter as expected before the publication of inflation figures for December. For example, George Buckley of Deutsche Bank estimated that the first rise can be decided at the meeting in May on the occasion of the publication of the second inflation report of 2011 (the first will be released in mid-February), when you have more information on the economic environment. Data released in recent weeks, in fact, showed a slower rate of economic growth, which led to the federation of British industry to estimate growth in the first two quarters of 2011 no more than 0.2%. In the view of industrial policy recently adopted restrictive fiscal Cameron government to bring the deficit under control in the coming years (from 10.1% this year, the deficit is expected to fall 2.1% in fiscal year 2014/2015) will have a negative impact on economic growth in the first part of next year. A restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of England is likely, therefore, confronted with the need to support economic growth. Precisely for this reason Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics suggest to the monetary authorities to keep their nerve and continue to provide support to economic growth. The setting of the monetary policy of the Bank of England is therefore very uncertain monetary policy is wait and the most likely scenario in the first quarter and the next steps should depend predominantly on the data that will be published in the next months. However, despite the jump in inflation, the beginning of a highly restrictive monetary policy does not appear imminent.

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will be once again the prospects for sovereign debt of the peripheral countries the focus of central bankers in the Euro 13 when they meet Thursday in Frankfurt. Shall not, however, expectations of interest rate decisions, which should remain stationary at 1% for the twentieth consecutive month. In particular, the situation will be in Portugal to be examined with greater care in the light of the tensions that have surrounded the Lusitanian debt securities during the first sessions of the year. During recent weeks, in fact, the Portuguese government to ten years have approached in a decisive manner, surpassing it in many occasions, the critical threshold of 7%, which marked the deterioration of the situation in Greece and Ireland, both countries were forced to require the coordinated action of European Union and the International Monetary Fund once their long-term yields had risen above 7%, making debt financing too expensive. The same Texeira Portuguese Finance Minister has repeatedly stressed that yields above 7% would be hardly bearable by his country. Hardly auctions of securities at 3 and 9 years on the calendar today should be able to bring about the peaceful markets, especially in light of the limited amount of equivalent value: between 750 million and 1.25 billion from 20 billion market that analysts estimate will be collected in 2011.

The debate within the ECB should be primarily focused on the continuation of the purchase of government bonds over the next month after market intervention by monetary authorities in Frankfurt have intensified in recent weeks: the value of the securities purchased is, in fact, rose to EUR74 billion from EUR63.5 billion in mid-November in the wake of the tensions that have covered the debt securities of all the peripheral countries. The decrease in securities purchased for EUR113 million in the week up to January 10 from EUR164 million the previous year and from EUR1121 million during the last week of 2010 may, however, be regarded as a sign of the unwillingness of the ECB to give more purchases under the program. That some members of the Board of Directors, among which the president of the Bundesbank Axel Weber, have always been skeptical of the purchase of government bonds is not, moreover never been a mystery. Significant new developments on this program, however, should not emerge, as well as with reference to the extraordinary refinancing that had been confirmed through the first quarter of this year last December.

At a press conference following the meeting the ECB President Trichet should remind governments decision to implement those measures necessary to bring the public finances in order and avoid a worsening of the situation on the markets, in line with the harsh tone used in the Last Friday, the Congress of the German CSU. This call should come as a warning to politicians that support the countries of the ECB and the banks in difficulties may soon fall.

Over the coming months, in fact, the ECB might have to return to deal with higher inflation, which we have already had the first signs during the month of December: according to Eurostat's flash estimate, in fact, consumer prices showed an increase of 2.2% y / y in the last months of 2010, the highest since January 2009. As the price increase should be mainly due to the leap in commodity prices, it is difficult to imagine that the ECB may decide to further increase market liquidity, in light of the signals coming from movements in the money supply M3. The growth rate of M3 money supply has in fact accelerated to 1 .9% y / y in November, as well as credits to the private sector. Only an increase in core inflation, 1 .1% y / y in November, but may alarm the ECB.

In short, investors expect the ECB to support new market could soon be very disappointed.

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DECAY "HOUSE OF THE TOWN '" DEDICATED TO "TOWN HALL IV - CEMENT TO ADVANCE" OF 24 NOVEMBER 2010: PART 1 - THE WORST TALENT Corviale

Transmission of "Little House on the city's" People's Radio, in collaboration with the Roman system of mutual aid, of 24 November 2010, dedicated to "Town Hall IV : The concrete advances "- part 1: Talents Corviale worse.

After the heartfelt appeal against the overbuilding Hall IV launched by the President of the IV Municipio Cristiano Bonelli at the direct-TGR Lazio square Minucciano of November 2, 2010, the program "The House of the city" of Radiopopolare of 24 November 2010 and explores the delicate issue of concern of overbuilding City Hall IV, in particular the district and the areas along the Via Talents Bufalotta, that is causing so much alarm among the citizens of the district and the entire Talent City Hall.

participate in the transmission study, two Meritorious neighborhood committees and Save Serpentara Talents, which are struggling to defend the town hall, in addition to the coordinator of the Roman Mutual Aid Marcello Paolozzi. Spoke over the phone the president of the IV Municipio Bonelli and the President of the Planning Commission of the City of Rome, Marco Di Cosimo.