Bank of Australia it dissociates from the other major central banks. If, in fact, all major international central banks have started to explore in the last few weeks whether to intervene again in support of their economies in the sense of expansion, the Reserve Bank of Australia is called upon to decide at the meeting to be held Tuesday, October 5 when the next raise interest rates again, taking them from 4.5% to 4.75%, or leave them unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. For the RBA is the seventh rate hike since last October, when it began during the removal of the expansionary monetary policy.
To fuel expectations of higher interest rates were the first statements by the governor Glenn Stevens and then the minutes of the meeting last September. In particular the latter have shown that when the Asian economies is very much in favor of supporting strong growth in the Australian economy through the investment boom in the mining sector, whose positive effects will spread to the rest of the economy. The RBA estimated, therefore, an acceleration of economic growth in 2011, following on from the data of 2010 are proving better than expected. GDP growth in the second quarter, for example, resort to 1 .2% q / q and 3.3% y / y, the number of employees rose to 30,000 units in August, with the unemployment rate down from 5.3% to 5.1% and the number of loans for the purchase of homes began to rise again in August.
recent trade balance figures published in September showed that the surplus of trade balance to remain close to the historical highs due mainly to exports of raw materials to Asian countries (exports to China account for 25% of total exports).
The high capacity utilization, also could increase the upward pressure on prices endangering the achievement of della banca Centrale Australiana di un’inflazione compresa tra il 2 ed il 3%. Per questo motivo, hanno concluso le minute della riunione di settembre “qualora i rischi derivanti dal rallentamento dell’economia statunitense e dai suoi effetti su quella asiatica dovessero essere contenuti, un livello più alto dei tassi di interesse sarebbe necessario per contenere le pressioni inflazionistiche”. Il cambiamento di tono della RBA nelle ultime settimana si è fatto sentire sulle quotazioni del Dollaro Australiano, che nel corso delle ultime sedute si è portato ai massimi storici sia contro l’Euro sia contro il Dollaro ed è avanzato anche nei confronti dello Yen giapponese. Infatti, molti investitori che durante l’estate had begun to discount the possibility that the RBA could have started a downtrend in interest rates by the end had to revise that expectation and be aware that the interest rate differential will become even more favorable to the Australian currency in the coming months.
A 25-bp rate hike is widely discounted by the market, with 13 out of 21 economists polled by Bloomberg expected a rise during the meeting next week. Economists at Barclays go even to estimate two restrictive measures by the end of the year: their argument is that the huge liquidity in circulation in the financial markets could push up prices of commodities, amplifying the positive trend of the Australian economy.
However, rising interest rates during the next week is not absolutely certain. For example, Adam Carr, an economist at ICAP Australia, pointed out that the minutes did not indicate any urgent need for the RBA in lifting rates. The sharp drop in building permits in August (-4.7% m / m) should reduce the chances of seeing a rise in interest rates already at the meeting next week. Not by chance, based on Bloomberg calculations, the rates of market discounts last rate hike of 25bp in the next week with a 48% chance against 56% of day before. An option for the RBA would be to wait until the publication of inflation figures, which are widespread in Australia on a quarterly basis, on 27 October to assess the extent of inflationary pressures. However, if Chinese economic growth should continue at a good pace in the coming months, favoring a rise in commodity prices, higher rates in Australia seem inevitable.
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